Unpublished Research

Work in Progress

Conditional asymmetry in Power ARCH(∞) models

We consider an extension of ARCH(∞) models to account for conditional asymmetry in the presence of high persistence. After stating existence and stationarity conditions, this paper develops the statistical inference of such models and proves the consistency and asymptotic distribution of a Quasi Maximum Likelihood estimator. Some particular specifications are studied and we introduce a Portmanteau test of goodness-of-fit. In addition, tests procedures for asymmetry and GARCH validity are derived. Finally, we present an application on a set of equity indices to reexamine the preeminence of GARCH(1,1) specifications. We find strong evidence that the short memory feature of such models is not suitable for peripheral assets.

Julien Royer
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Presentations in scientific conferences and seminars

  • Econometric Society European Meeting (ESEM 2021) – Copenhagen (virtual), Aug. 2021
  • Ninth Italian Congress of Econometrics and Empirical Economics (ICEEE 2021) – Cagliary (virtual), Jan. 2021
  • 14th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics (CFE 2020) – London (virtual), Dec. 2020
  • CREST seminar in Financial Econometrics – Palaiseau, Oct. 2020
  • New Results on Time Series and their Statistical Applications – CIRM Meeting – Marseille, Sep. 2020
  • ANR MultiRisk Workshop – Palaiseau, Dec. 2019